By Dick Hagen
The Land Staff Writer
December 07, 2007 03:21 am
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With 2008 corn acres likely to be down anywhere from 5 million to 8 million acres nationwide, logic suggests hybrid seed corn supplies should be more than adequate.
So much for logic.
If you have not yet ordered, finding both the genetic and trait package you desire could be an issue.
“Yes, the industry will have more than enough seed. However, because of the rapid adoption of the new trait packages getting your favorite hybrid also equipped with the traits you want, could be a squeeze,” said Dennis Sjogren, Gold Country Seed CEO.
Because of the unpredictable challenges of Mother Nature, most seed companies produce seed in various geographic locations, reducing the impact of stressed seed fields.
Gold Country Seed for example has seed production across the central Corn Belt ranging from Indiana to Nebraska, with much of this production on irrigated land. Plus to get the newest genetics into the pipeline ASAP, some seed increase is also done in Chile.
Morgan Dietrich, Mycogen Seeds district sales manager for south central Minnesota, agreed, “plenty of seed but possibly tight on your favorite trait package. Ordering early to get what you want is where you want to be.
“Triples are going to be at least 65 percent of my sales for next spring — and it could go higher. Most producers appreciate the added value of traits, so this ‘add-on’ feature isn’t even seriously challenged anymore.”
Former University of Minnesota Extension Educator Dave Schwartz, now with Gold Country Seed, said, “changes and adoption rates in farming and the seed industry that used to take 20 years, now are happening in three to four months. Trait technology adoption is especially fascinating. It takes continual education by the seed industry to its customers but the economic rewards to both the seed industry and U.S. farmers has been spectacular.”
Schwartz, Dietrich and others agree that service to that customer is more important than ever, triggered both by the $200 or better cost of hybrid seed corn today and also by the important agronomic knowledge as to where and how best to use these new hybrids.
Don’t be surprised, however, if much of your seed corn is sized small. That hot, dry weather during pollination resulted in a much higher percentage of small seeds rather than the usual small, medium and large configurations.
The 90,000 kernels per bag package will be the norm, Dietrich said, “especially in the earlier maturities a fairly high percentage will be plateless,” but the standard 95 percent minimum germination on the label will still prevail.
A bigger concern, however, may be seed supplies and seed quality for soybeans.
Thanks to strong markets, even into the 2008 marketing year, soybeans are the “hot commodity,” virtually trading places with corn a year earlier.
Those higher market prices are stimulating upwards of 7 million to 9 million more acres for 2008.
Bryan Doherty, senior marketing adviser for Stewart-Peterson Agricultural Commodity Consultants of West Bend, Wis., said many producers are talking about being back to their normal crop rotation.
“If so, pretty much all the soybean acres lost to corn this year, will be back in soybeans next year.”
But here’s the potential rub: soybean seed quality doesn’t appear to be up to standards because of the hot, dry summer that pushed seed fields along rapidly, and then September rains that re-energized these fields.
“Lots of seed fields took on additional moisture, the beans plumped up and field dry down was very uneven. Net result is quality and germination isn’t up to par. This problem exists across the seed industry,” Dietrich said.
Schwartz also acknowledged a challenging year for soybean seed production in some areas.
“We’ll be in good shape overall, but like most companies we could run tight on a few of the newer releases, especially those with exceptional agronomics. Just a few years back, if you had cyst-infested soils, you had yield drag. But thanks to new genetics, yield losses due to soybean cyst are negligible.”
He predicts a rapidly growing future for the “heart healthy” Vistive soybean because of its zero trans-fats content.
“For the immediate future, more demand than there is product availability.” He also sees that 50-cent to 60-cent market premium for the Vistive soybean to be a marketing bonus for at least a couple more years.
Another potential challenge to both corn and soybean 2008 plantings is the fact that wheat still pencils out, especially in those areas where wheat used to be “king” but has lost favor to corn and soybeans because of superior genetics.
“In more traditional corn and soybean country, wheat doesn’t pencil out good enough to compete, especially against soybeans,” said Al Kluis, marketing analyst, talking “Strategies for Success” at a recent series of farm meetings hosted by Gold Country Seed.
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