The following marketing column was written for the week ending April 9.

CORN - Another week and another U.S. Department of Agriculture report are now behind us. We'll recap what today's USDA monthly supply-demand balance sheets had to say; but going forward, weather will become the focus of attention, and to a lesser extent outside markets.

The only change to today's corn balance sheet was that the feed usage line was dropped 100 million bushels. This was reflected directly in the bottom line with ending stocks for 2009-10 increasing 100 million bushels from 1.799 billion bushels to 1.899 billion bushels.

This compares to the average pre-report trade estimate of 1.922 billion. Argentina's corn production was left unchanged at 21.0 million metric tons, Brazil's jumped 2.5 mmt to 53.5 mmt, and South Africa's was up 0.5 mmt to 14.0 mmt. World corn carryout for this year jumped from 140.2 mmt to 144.2 mmt. Last year world stocks were 147.5 mmt.

The weather outlook for the next few weeks looks conducive for planting corn around the Midwest. Almost hourly forecasts will be closely watched for any sign of planting delays. This year's planting may look quicker than normal since we've had a couple of years of late planting which would skew the average.

Will the European Union help Greece with their financial problems? Will Greece need help? Will they have to turn to the International Monetary Fund? Sentiment on this issue swings from one side to the other, and along with it the U.S. dollar. Now we can throw into the mix the possibility/probability that China will let their currency float to some extent. This will help curb their growth/inflation concerns, which usually would pressure the U.S. dollar and promote commodity prices. How this will all pan out is more than my crystal ball can see.

Also in the news this week was talk that China would import corn. This rallied corn before the talk was dismissed on news China may release up to 4.5 mmt of corn from reserves. For the week, July corn was 1 1/4 cents higher at $3.57 1/4 and the December contract was 1 3/4 cents higher at $3.78 3/4.

OUTLOOK: Even bear markets have their brief rallies, and that's what can be expected for the corn market without a major weather issue. So far, the $3.55 support level has held in the July corn contract, but I would anticipate that to be penetrated if planters are rolling next week. The second level of support for July corn is $3.33 with resistance at $3.65. New crop corn would also be expected to fall below the $3.75 support level fairly quickly and head toward $3.50. In the bigger picture December corn may be headed closer to $3 without support from Mother Nature. Bounces, and there will be some, could be expected to be met with resistance in the $3.85 to $3.90 area.

SOYBEANS - The April 9 USDA report gave the market a few things to think about.

Ending stocks for 2009-10 were left unchanged at 190 million bushels when the average trade estimate was 209 million bushels. This was accomplished by raising exports to a record 1.445 billion bushels, increasing seed use by 2 million and lowering the residual line by 26 million bushels.

The oil balance sheet was left totally unchanged. The meal supply-demand, however, had an increase in production of 250,000 tons and an increase in exports by the same amount. The result was unchanged meal ending stocks. It's interesting how we didn't increase bean production or oil production, but were able to somehow justify a meal production increase.

Brazil's soybean production was up 0.5 mmt to 67.5 mmt and Argentina's production number was up 1.0 mmt to 54.0 mmt. This brings the world carryout to 62.96 mmt from 60.67 mmt. Last year's world bean ending stocks were only 42.82 mmt. July and November beans were each up 10 3/4 cents this week at 49.62 and $9.36 1/2 respectively.

OUTLOOK: The situation in soybeans is similar to corn, only more bearish. There is a big supply of soybeans in the world and without a weather influence it's hard to imagine what factor would inspire prices to stage a significant comeback. First support in the July beans comes in at $9.42, then $9.30/$9 and every 50 cents lower; resistance at $9.75, then $9.84. For the November contract, first support is $9.12, then $9; resistance $9.45 to $9.48.

Nystrom's notes: Nearby contract changes for the week as of April 1: Minneapolis wheat was up 12 1/4 cents, Chicago wheat up 11 cents and Kansas City wheat up 13 1/2 cents. Crude oil settle up a nickel at $84.92, heating oil up about a penny, gasoline down almost 3 1/2 cents, and natural gas down 1 3/4 cents. Gold jumped $36.20, the Dow was up 70 points, and the U.S. dollar index was up 0.11 points at $80.89.

<center>&#8226;&#8226;&#8226;</center><i>Phyllis Nystrom is a market analyst with Country Hedging in St. Paul.</i>