Coffee shop talk to the contrary, both the quality and the quantity of soybean seed for 2010 may be OK.
A lot of soybeans were harvested with 14 to 16 percent moisture this fall, much mechanically dried too. And with cool and wet October delaying some soybean harvest until November, there is concern whether those beans matured properly, and what germ they will be. Such is the early season coffee shop buzz.
“In general the seed supply should be fairly good,” said Dave Schwartz, Gold Country Seed agronomist, “but there will be a few maturities, especially in the 0 to 1.0 RM range where growers should order ASAP.
“Seed grown in the Red River Valley area and a few other areas could have some germination issues come next spring. But for the most part we’re in good shape for the new crop season.”
He talked of seed production areas from Aberdeen toward Fargo where harvest was extremely difficult this fall.
But his overall look at germination scores for this 2009 soybean seed crop? “Surprisingly good,” said Schwartz, adding, “I don’t think anyone was real comfortable about the first of November when there were still lots of seed beans in the field. But those cool temperatures of October likely saved the germination of many of these seed beans.
“Had it been wet and warm, germination might be much lower. Today we’re seeing most of the germs running over 90 percent. I don’t see any panic to sell low-germ soybean seed at a special discount. Yes, there could be a few exceptions but overall its much better than I expected.”
Soybean seed size isn’t an issue either. Schwartz reported 300 to 400 fewer seeds per pound this year, which translates to bigger overall seed size. For example, varieties averaging 3,000 seeds per pound last year are counting 2,700 seeds per pound this year. Those warm, sunshine-filled days of September deserve the credit for larger bean size.
Schwartz reflected that typically after the first of November you don’t get good drying conditions for any crops still in the field. This year Nov. 1 was barely the start of harvest for many farmers, on both their corn and soybeans, so it was a given that getting beans out of the field with moisture 16-17 percent and higher was going to happen.
“But as it turned out,” Schwartz said, “we were cutting some beans in November with moistures down to 12 percent. Amazing and we should be thankful.” He suggested this fall’s harvest was a teaching experience, and that perhaps farmers should be harvesting at 14 percent moisture rather than waiting until 12 percent.
Why? Because too often, he said, if you wait until 12 percent moisture you’re cutting some beans at 10 percent. Then, pod shattering and split and cracked beans are inevitable.
Bruce Knoke, CEO of Precision Soya’s Olivia conditioning facility, said his firm is striving to maintain a 90 percent germination score for the 2010 seed crop. “We think we’ll be okay on inventory, especially on seed grown from Highway 212 on south. But volume might be light in some of our northern seed production areas.”
He candidly assessed that beans for the 2010 soybean crop won’t be perfect. You’ll see some flaws but overall it looks now like the quality will be OK, said Knoke. “Right now clean outs are running high. We’re doing everything we can to provide a quality product. We’ve only conditioned about 25 percent of this year’s seed crop so there can be some adjustments as we get further along,” he said.
If there is a perceived soybean seed shortage, farmers may have already remedied the potential problem. Forecasters are suggesting nearly 4 percent more corn acres for the United States in 2010 but a potential 1 percent reduction in soybean acreage.
