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Soybeans

June 4, 2010

Grain Outlook: Corn shining star for one week

Originally published in the May 28, 2010, print edition.

The following market analysis is for the week ending May 21.

CORN - Corn was the shining star of the commodity world this week as it was able to push higher in spite of negative macro influences.

The feeling in grains this week was one of almost a disconnect to outside factors, instead concentrating on slow farmer selling plus Chinese and domestic demand. The euro plummeted to four-year lows versus the U.S. dollar, the U.S. jobless number was higher than expected, and energies and stock markets nose-dived. A big Wall Street player this week announced they were friendly corn, bearish beans and neutral wheat - this may also have been an influence this week on our direction.

China continued to sell corn out of their reserves this week, with another auction planned for the coming week. Thus far they have sold 5.6 million metric tons out of their reserves. Their domestic prices however, have yet to break lower. One report indicated another 500,000 metric ton import quota was being requested. It wasn't surprising that another sale of 118,000 mt of old crop U.S. corn was sold to them this week. In fact, many were looking for a larger amount, but an announcement earlier in the week of an old crop corn sale of 124,000 mt was widely thought to be to China.

Weekly export sales as of May 13 were good, showing old crop sales of 53.3 million bushels and new crop sales of 9.4 million bushels. Over 17 percent of the old crop sales and 54 percent of new crop sales were to China.

The first weekly corn condition report this past week was disappointing to some with only 67 percent of the crop rated in the good/excellent categories. The five-year average rating is 70 percent good/excellent. With excellent weather in the forecast for the next 10 days or more, this is a moot issue for now.

OUTLOOK: Corn was able to shake off the negative outside influences to close the week higher. July corn was up 6 cents on the week to settle at $3.69. The short-term trading range for July is expected to be $3.50 to $3.85, until the crop is better established and/or we know what China's buying intentions are.

The December contract was up 5 1/4 cents this week to close at $3.85 1/4 after punching through support to trade as low as $3.72 during the week. Support in the December contract is reset down to $3.67 with resistance at $4.

SOYBEANS - Soybeans could be termed a follower this week as it took its cues from the corn market.

Beans were tempted to follow the energy and stock markets lower, but in the end a strong cash bean market and higher grain markets triumphed. July soybeans were down 12 1/2 cents at $9.41 for the week after trading a weekly range of $9.31 to $9.55. The November bean contract plummeted to its lowest level since last October. New crop beans traded a range this week of $8.93 to $9.27 1/4, closing at $9.07 1/2 and down 18 3/4 cents for the week.

A sale of 120,000 mt of new crop soybeans to China was announced as we entered the last session of the week. This will show up in next week's sales. Export sales this week were a little disappointing at 17.6 million bushels for old crop and 3.2 million bushels for new crop. Only 12.5 percent of old crop sales were to China while 70 percent of new crop sales were to them.

A weaker Brazilian real this week contributed to an increase in grower sales. U.S. beans are competitive with South American origins, U.S. growers are on the sidelines, but outside factors are limiting factors to upside moves.

OUTLOOK: Beans should continue to struggle as their export window is diminishing and the crop is off to a good start; however, minimal grower sales to meet demand is providing support. It's an old crop/new crop game. New crop is under pressure on good crop development, old crop is supported on demand due to tight farmer holding.

July beans essentially hit our first support of $9.30 this week, so we'll look at $9.20 as next support; resistance at $9.55 to $9.65. The November contract sliced through our first support at just over $9 this week. We'll look at secondary support nearer $8.75; resistance $9.28/$9.40.

Nystrom's notes: Closing changes this week as of mid-afternoon May 21: July Minneapolis wheat up 1 3/4 cents, Kansas City up 4 cents and Chicago up 1/2 cent. Crude oil plunged $5.39 to $70.04 in the new lead July contract, heating oil down 16.4 cents, gasoline down almost 17 cents and natural gas declined 27.7 cents. The Dow was down nearly 500 points, gold was down $51.70 per ounce and the U.S. dollar index fell 0.59 points.

...

Phyllis Nystrom is a market analyst with Country Hedging in St. Paul.

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